June 25, 2021 | Maurice Allin

Drawing Ag Marketing Insights From 2021 Farmer Speaks Research

The 2021 Farmer Speaks research, conducted by Millennium Research and sponsored by J.L. Farmakis, Inc., continues a series focused on bringing valuable information and insights about farmers directly to agrimarketers. WS VP of Business Intelligence, Maurice Allin, took some time to review this year’s results. We share his insights below.

Great to see the folks at Farmakis continuing their “Farmer Speaks” series! I want to comment on and explode the dot regarding some of the findings that are of particular interest to agrimarketers. As a very strong advocate for segmentation, most of my comments look past the aggregate numbers and speculate about the implications of some of the details in the study. 

The title of this year’s report is the “Dawn of Hope” and the data definitely shows some optimism, but we need to parse the data very carefully – mostly due to the timing of the study:

• The study was fielded in December 2020, at a time when the US election had finally come to a close, and optimistic news about soon-to-available COVID-19 vaccines offered the prospect – but not the reality -of normalizing our personal interactions.
• Perhaps more importantly, we were beginning to see some real enthusiasm around crop pricing, with December soybean prices above $14/bushel and serious questions (since proven VERY wrong) about whether those prices would hold.
• Finally, let’s remember that this study is based on a relatively small sample size and that when we look at the break-outs based on farm size, we are getting into fairly wide confidence intervals. As always, I caution the reader to take the information in this survey as directional rather than absolute.

While there is lots of information here of interest, I want to focus on three topics that point to the future.

Hunkering Down or Dialing It In?

One of the things I enjoy most about this study is the chance to look at trendlines. (Note to Farmakis/Millennium: give us more!) This chart points to a distinct downward trend in change behavior. Given events of the past year it’s not unexpected, but this trendline is now out of the cradle and walking. 

Is this reticence caused by a sense that there is “nothing new”, or is it because farmers at this point in the macro-economic and social cycle are being risk averse? The devil is in the details. When we add the information from slides (not shown here) about the differences between small, medium and large-scale farmers, it’s evident that larger scale farms are still experimenting and willing to change things up.

 My take is simple: in any market, there are individual growers focusing on finding something better. Ignore the aggregate and look at the underlying drivers to base your argument.

In any market, there are individual growers focusing on finding something better. Share on X

Perspective on Biologicals

The information on use of biological products is intriguing, both for what it does, and does not, say. 

Satisfaction with biologicals is all over the map – nothing even resembling a normal distribution here! My guess is that there are two things going on:

• A very small sample size. Only 25% of respondents appear to ever have tried a “biological” product. Without enough samples, the random variation doesn’t level out to show a true pattern reflective of the overall population. 
• The biological category is diverse and growing. Individual respondents may be thinking of very different products and situations when they provide their rating. 

My take is that the most important part of this analysis is the year over year comparison, showing a slight reduction in overall satisfaction. Are we entering the Hype Cycle “Trough of Disillusionment”? 

Data, Information, Knowledge & Wisdom

I find this graphic of “Precision Ag Plans” interesting and a bit frustrating. It’s interesting because within this huge topic, the most common answers are “no purchases planned” and “other”. At first glance this indicates that growers are either happy with what they have, or almost happy, and need only to refine the overall package. I see something else in this slide – a focus on the hardware and a distinct lack of focus on the “knowledge-ware”. 

My frustration is two-fold. First, what’s in that 22% of “other, not listed”? Could it be tools that will help farmers take their mountains of data and turn it into actionable strategies? Or is it that as an industry we aren’t getting the message across that data is only useful when it is transformed into information, knowledge, and then wisdom? My take is that it would be far more interesting to see how growers are using the data (or if they are using it at all) than to know how they are collecting it.

Overall, this study offers interesting insights that should inspire further consideration for ag marketers. You can get a copy by contacting your representative at J.L. Farmakis.

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